S&P 500 Breaks New Record; Small Business Picture Is Different

Published Friday, August 21, 2020; 8:00 p.m. EST

(Friday, August 21, 2020; 8:00 p.m. EST) It's a tale of two economies: coronavirus hurts small businesses while the tech giants are immune.

The Standard & Poor's 500 closed at a new record high, but the recovery picture in the overall U.S. economy is not as bright.

4802 2

The 60 leading economists surveyed in mid-August by "The Wall Street Journal" expect a gradual decline in the unemployment rate to 4.9% by the end of 2023.

However, pre-covid, unemployment dropped to as low as 3.5%, and economists don't expect to re-approach that level, "full employment," for at least several years. To be clear, a complete recovery from the pandemic will take years.

4802 3

Driven largely by the earnings expected of Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google, and Microsoft, the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index closed Friday at 3,397.16, a new all time high.

While the S&P 500 is full valued relative to its historical norm, it's not trading at anything near an outlandish multiple of expected profits. Valuations on stocks are nothing like the tech-stock bubble in 2000.

Even as the S&P 500 booms, however, the broader economy remains less strong than before the pandemic.

4802 4

"Despite the recent gains in the (U.S. Leading Economic Indicators) LEI, which remain fairly broad-based, the initial post-pandemic recovery appears to be losing steam," according to economists at The Conference Board,  "The LEI suggests that the pace of economic growth will weaken substantially during the final months of 2020."

The Standard & Poor's 500 is one of 10 components of the U.S. Leading Economic Indicators.  The LEI is a better way of seeing the expected road to recovery and more accurately reflects what's happening in the real economy.


The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is a market-value weighted index with each stock's weight proportionate to its market value. Index returns do not include fees or expenses. Investing involves risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate so that an investor's shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Current performance may be lower or higher than the performance quoted.

Nothing contained herein is to be considered a solicitation, research material, an investment recommendation, or advice of any kind, and it is subject to change without notice. It does not take into account your investment objectives, financial or tax situation, or particular needs. Product suitability must be independently determined for each individual investor.  Tax advice always depends on your particular personal situation and preferences.

The material represents an assessment of financial, economic and tax law at a specific point in time​​​​ and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. Forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. It is not guaranteed as to accuracy, does not purport to be complete, and is not intended to be used as a primary basis for investment decisions.

This article was written by a professional financial journalist for The Mosaic Financial Group LLC and is not intended as legal or investment advice.

2024

    2023

    2022

    2021

    2020

    2019

    2018

    2017

    2016

    2015

    eNewsletter

    Tell A Friend

    Company Info

    The Mosaic Financial Group LLC.

    303 E Wacker Drive, Suite 1675
    Chicago, IL 60601
    Phone: 312-255-5490
    Fax: 312-255-5495
    Email: contact@themfg.com


     

    This website uses cookies for navigation, content delivery and other functions. By using our website you agree that we can place cookies on your device. I understand